Aurora, Epping North – Future demand for retail facilities

Location:  Aurora, Epping North (VIC)

Brief:  Epping North is a major growth area in northern Melbourne. The Aurora estate by Places Victoria is the largest residential development in Epping North. A network of activity centres is planned for development to serve the retail and service needs of existing and future residents in the area.

Places Victoria was seeking advice in relation to the appropriate scale, composition and timing for development of the planned activity centres within the Aurora estate.

Methodology:  A supply and demand analysis of retail floorspace was undertaken for an identified study area incorporating all of Epping North (including Aurora).

On the demand side, the expected rates of population and retail expenditure growth within each sector of the study area were assessed on the basis of information from developers, the ABS census and other sources.

On the supply side, a review of existing and proposed retail facilities, including relevant activity centres within and beyond the study area, was undertaken to determine the potential provision of retail floorspace available to study area residents.

The potential levels of supply and demand were then compared on an annual basis in order to assess the appropriate scale, composition and timing for development of the proposed activity centres.

Result:  It was determined that the Aurora estate could sustain a sub-regional shopping centre, a supermarket based neighbourhood centre and multiple local centres at capacity. At least two other neighbourhood centres and additional local centres will also be supportable elsewhere in the study area, as well as a possible second sub-regional centre over the much longer term.