Greater Darwin Population and Employment Model

Project name: Greater Darwin Population and Employment Model

Client: Parsons Brinkerhoff and NT Department of Transport

Brief: MacroPlan was engaged by the NT Department of Transport and Parsons Brinckerhoff to analyse the spatial distribution of future population and employment across Greater Darwin as a key input into the transport network planning process.

Methodology: In order to achieve this objective, MacroPlan developed a small-area population and employment forecasting model that utilised both demographic and geospatial data. This forecast represents a projection of the future – a projection which may vary over time.   Key inputs to the model include headline population figures available from the Northern Territory Government (Department of Treasury and Finance) for the period 2011 to 2041. The Northern Territory Population Projections are based on a cohort component model, developed to meet the needs of Northern Territory Government agencies as well as the broader community.

This data was incorporated on an annual basis taking into consideration the development sequence outlined in our model of land release and infill development.   Population growth, in part, is facilitated by new residential estates in greenfield areas. DLPE currently list land release areas that are planned to cater for this future residential growth.  Further research of land release material from private and public sources provides indications of scale and current sales for these land release areas. This information can then be analysed geographically to arrive a greenfield capacity for each land release area, and further allocated to by Transport Zone (TZN).

Result: In this exercise, land release area information has been sourced from DLPE to transform in to accounts of residential greenfield capacity by TZN.   The timing for developments depends on demand and delivery constraints in the currently identified areas. The development sequence of these areas will be determined by criteria including providing choice/competition and maximising infrastructure utilisation.