Project Name: Mid West Investability Model – Peer Review
Client: City of Geraldton
Location: Geraldton, Western Australia
Project Description: MacroPlan undertook a peer review of the Phase One, Phase Two and Phase Three reports completed as part of the “Mid West Investability Model” by Applied Knowledge Consulting. MacroPlan acknowledge the importance of the Mid West region, as well as the importance of appropriately planning for the region as a high growth region in Western Australia. In response the “Mid West Investability Model” has been developed to provide investment guidance for the region and support this economic growth. The assessment also presented a case study analysis of economic and population trends observed in other Australian resource driven high growth regions to contextualise the suggestions outlined in the Mid West ‘Investability’ study.
Project Outcome: The analysis examined both population growth and economic multipliers across mining regions of Queensland. The analysis contrasted population growth projections prepared in 2007 with actual population growth since then findings that in all cases the actual growth in Mining towns have exceeded expectation.
In summary these findings indicate:
- Population growth in resource driven regional economies is difficult and that using historical trends can result in conservative forecasts.
- It is important to clearly establish the method and inputs that feed into the population forecasts, and consider these forecasts in light of previous forecasts and actual growth trends observed.
- Economic multipliers (or their estimates) for the mining sector in regional areas of Queensland typically vary between 0.3 and 1 in regional areas.
In this context the aspiration to reach a multiplier of 0.8 in the Mid West was not unlikely.