The Palms, Christchurch – Earthquake impact assessment

Location:  Shirley, Christchurch (NZ)

Brief:  The Palms is one of four regional shopping centres in Christchurch. The local catchment was significantly affected in both the 2010 and 2011 Christchurch earthquakes, with approximately 5,000 dwellings being classified within the residential red zone. The reparation and reconstruction of residential dwellings within the red zone is uneconomic.

AMP Capital Investors required a study that detailed the future outlook for housing and population in the trade area as well as future sales potential for the centre.

Methodology:  Existing housing and population assumptions were based upon a detailed investigation into the various earthquake damage zones and post-earthquake movements of Christchurch residents as well as information produced by Statistics NZ and Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA).

The future growth in residential population was assessed under two scenarios, a base case, which was considered the most likely outcome for The Palms main trade area, and an alternative scenario, which assumed a greater exodus of residents and a slower, prolonged rebuild effort within the local area and more widely throughout Christchurch.

The competitive landscape within which The Palms operates was then examined. This section of the report detailed the post-earthquake damage to regional and CBD retail facilities and outlined the indicative plans for future retail within the CBD and more broadly throughout Christchurch.

The future sales potential of The Palms was then assessed under the base case and alternative scenarios, having regard for the future population growth outlook and relevant competitive developments.

Result:  The Palms is well positioned as the major regional centre in the eastern suburbs, especially given the closure of many retail facilities within the CBD and eastern suburbs. This strong market position is expected to continue into the future.